The Case for October in the Bronx

Fact: The Yankees are 5 games back of both Boston and Chicago in the AL Wildcard, and are undoubtedly all but dead in the AL East race

Fact: The Yanks have seemingly forgotten how to hit in RISP situations (some .200-something avg in these situations and two outs)

Fact: It is highly unlikely that either of the White Sox or Red Sox will finish below .500 for the rest of their games, meaning, even if one of these teams go 16-17 in their last 33 games, the Yankees still need to go 21-12 (.635 ball) to tie. Not an easy feat

However, maybe its my cautious optimism built up over the last 15 years about my team, or it could be just faith in the numbers and the situations.

Boston: The Red Sox are in some serious trouble with Josh Beckett out until Friday. Although the reports had him sleeping on his arm the wrong way, Im more concerned and feel like there's no way this injury causes more than a week and two starts skipped. The Red Sox lineup isnt nearly as scary with Manny Ramirez in the lineup. Their bullpen (anyone not named Jon Papelbon) is an absolute disaster. Without a dominant Beckett, can the Sox rely on a previous September burnout (Dice-K) to anchor their rotation through September?

Chicago: The team is on fire right now, there's no doubt. However, the issue remains that they are in a very tight race with the Twins right now, and with those two teams with a few series' left, we can see some beating up effect that they might have on each other and prevent the other from pulling away. Not to mention the team historically is combustible and really can go cold at any second

Yankees: The bottom line is, they have too many games against the Sox and Sox (something like 10 in total). The Yankees major concern is the offense. Pitching has been above average recently, and with Joba and Pavano (yes, Carl Pavano) back, I would expect it to keep the Yankees in most games, providing for a Sidney Ponson blowup once every two weeks. If A-Rod and Giambi can start hitting at least .50 points better with 2-outs RISP, the Yankees are going to score 2-3 runs a game. For a team thats played so many close games this year with a good bullpen, this is going to make a difference. One thing is for sure however, I'm not ready to sell on the Yankees just yet, but things need to start getting a whole lot more consistent at the dish soon.